An article in the Washington Post by Chico Harlan on the decline of Japanese once-great tech companies got a fair bit of attention over the weekend for reasons that aren’t clear to me.
The ‘fundamental problem’, according to Harlan, is that Japanese tech companies no longer seem able to create hit products people want. Before we get to whether this is actually true, what are the products to which he is referring? When did Sharp or Panasonic or Hitachi (Toshiba, Sanyo, Casio, Fujitsu…) ever create hit products? Sony used to create products people had to buy (Walkman, Handycam, Discman, PlayStation) and Nintendo made some popular video game consoles. But Japanese companies generally? Reliability and price were what they used to churn out.1
Even if we allow that Japan was once the land of the hit product, is this the fundamental problem? Harlan seems to be confusing the symptom with the disease. A product is a hit because it’s successful with consumers. But whether consumers flock to your product or not isn’t something you as a company control: what you control is what the product does and how much it costs.
As Harlan meanders through the travails of Japanese companies he does touch on these points but he doesn’t point them out particularly well. Allow me.
The first problem Japanese companies are facing is that software is replacing hardware and allowing general-purpose devices (smartphones, tablets) to replace a swathe of single-purpose electronic devices (phones, cameras, music players, game consoles, etc). You can kind of fault Japanese companies for not being better at software but that criticism only really has much zing to it if you pretend that hardware and software are basically the same thing so how hard is it to do one if you can do the other? The answer is really hard. After all this is hardly restricted to Japan. Basically everyone is crap at software (Motorola?). Even software companies are often crap at software (Microsoft?). Recall that all these general-purpose devices are essentially running software either from Apple or Google.
The failure at software explains why Sony has lost its edge2 but if you want to understand what’s going wrong with Japanese technology companies generally it’s not that they can’t make hit products (since they were never doing that in the first place), it’s that they’re no longer able to make money making TVs, home entertainment systems, kitchen appliances, etc, etc. And the reason they can’t do that is because they can’t match the prices of competitors in China, Taiwan and Korea (competitors who either didn’t exist or who were a joke two decades ago). Analyst Michael Gartenberg admits as much in the piece but any suggestion that the fault may not be with the companies themselves is not left to stand for very long. Harlan immediately follows up Gartenberg’s explanation that cheap Asian competitors now produce ‘good enough’ products with:
“Japanese companies,” Gartenberg added, “were busy defending old business models that the world simply bypassed.”
Huh? What business models? No idea! I guess if we’d critically analysed this statement we may not have had time to compare market cap estimates.
The fact is that almost every non-software tech company is being creamed at the moment (eg. Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, Motorola, Nokia). Japan’s tech giants may be faulted for not moving into software but writing software is completely different to manning factories. You’d be better off moving into solar panels, if you ask me.